Smithers forecasts packaging print market to hit US$604.0B in 2029 in wake of Drupa 2024

This article first appeared in the December 2024 issue of ProPack.pro.

Packaging and labels are increasingly important to the strategic future of the printing industry, with annual sales now worth more than half a trillion dollars, according to research firm Smithers.

It found that while traditional publication and graphics markets are static or in decline, rising consumption of packaged goods is fueling growth. Smithers added this was witnessed at Drupa 2024 earlier this year, with multiple OEMs debuting new machines for printing corrugated board, folding cartons, flexible packaging and labels.

In its The Future of Package Printing to 2029 study, Smithers showed that in 2024, the total global value in the sector will reach US$504.9 billion. This will see 14.31 trillion A4 print equivalents of labels, corrugated board, folding cartons, flexible paper and plastics, rigid plastic and metal packaging printed this year, consuming 1.54 million tons of ink.

Here are some further findings from the study:

Despite global economic challenges and new sustainability mandates, a steady growth trajectory is reasserting itself. This will push global value to US$604.0 billion in 2029, representative of an increase of 3.6 per cent in compound annual growth rate (CAGR), by value. Across the same five years, output will increase to 17.12 trillion A4 equivalents.

Both digital and analogue press makers are developing technology to address opportunities across this market. Flexo remains the most widely used print process, especially for high-volume corrugated board, labels, and flexible formats. It accounts for 52.6 per cent of contemporary output. Gravure and offset litho and are also popular, mainly for printing higher-quality graphics on folding cartons and flexible packaging. These account for 20.1 per cent and 17.9 per cent of packaging and labels volume respectively.  

For all analogue OEMs, the further penetration of digital print, especially the latest generation of higher throughput inkjet machines poses a direct challenge. Quality is improving on inkjet and electrophotography (toner) presses, even as they become more cost-competitive for longer print runs.

These also offer much shorter turnaround times, less wastage, give greater scope for customisation, and are easier to integrate with online design and ordering systems – all of which align to calls for greater versatility from packaging buyers.

At Drupa 2024, a host of new machines for high-speed digital printing of folding cartons were shown – there is also a developing footprint of single-pass inkjet corrugated presses, and narrow web toner and inkjet machines are increasingly being configured to also take short-run flexible jobs.

The potential of these systems to offer added value means that while digital only accounts for 1.1 per cent of volume in 2024, it represents 3.9 per cent of value. Smithers expert modelling forecasts further expansion with digital output growing at a growth of 12.8 per cent CAGR across the next five years.

In response, analogue OEMs are investing in greater automation both in pre-press and on-press. This is combined with superior workflow, online maintenance platforms, and other software, as well as developing hybrid systems with inkjet stations printing variable data elements on high-speed analogue lines.

As technology evolves across the sector, OEMs and print service providers are adapting to changes in packaging materials. The drive for greater sustainability is pushing converters to use more paperboard and coated paper stocks, as well as thicker mono material polymer formats in flexibles.

Regulatory developments are emphasising recyclability. This is creating a demand for packaging printers to switch to water-based inks, invest in better de-inking technology, and work with new material sets that are easier to recover at end of life.

In the narrow web segment, this is pushing converters to move towards thinner easier to separate labelstocks, lowering ink coverage, and minimising or switching adhesives.

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